Arbitration Trea Turner: Snapshot of Dodgers shortstop salary in 2022
Trea Turner has one more season to qualify for free agency and is eligible for salary arbitration. With MLB currently on lockdown, we don’t know exactly when arbitration hearings can take place, but we can at least be reasonably prepared once they do.
Turner is five years old, 135 days of major league service and is entering officiating for the fourth time. He was a Super Two in 2019, among the 22% of the best players with at least two years but not yet three years of service, which earned him an additional year of officiating instead of the usual three seasons.
He avoided an arbitration hearing in each of the past three years by agreeing to a one-year deal with the Nationals in the days leading up to the date players and teams would trade their salaries. If MLB were still open for now, the 2022 trade date would likely have been next week.
Here’s what Turner did in each of his first three officiating-eligible seasons:
One of the foundations of the arbitration process is to find comparable players, both in terms of performance and uptime. With Turner on the verge of going free, his peer field narrows, as does being a former Super Two player. After a formidable season – leading the National League in hits, total bases, batting averages, stolen bases and fWAR, finishing fifth in the NL MVP vote – Turner compares well to his similar, star-studded squad. .
Recent Super Two players in their fourth year of officiating
| Player | Pos | Year | Service time | Salary | Prev salary | % to augment | WAR (year) | WAR (career) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | Year | Service time | Salary | Prev salary | % to augment | WAR (year) | WAR (career) | Comment |
| Trea turner | SS / 2B | 2022 | 5.135 | To be determined | $ 13,000,000 | To be determined | 6.7 | 24.4 | 5th in 21 MVP |
| Kris bryant | 3B / DE | 2021 | 5.171 | $ 19,500,000 | $ 18,600,000 | 4.84% | 0.5 | 26.9 | MVP 2016 |
| George springer | OF | 2020 | 5.166 | $ 21,000,000 | $ 12,000,000 | 75.00% | 6.5 | 25.1 | 7th in 19 MVP |
| Antoine Rendon | 3B | 2019 | 5.130 | $ 18,800,000 | $ 12,300,000 | 52.85% | 5.7 | 24.3 | |
| Josh donaldson | 3B | 2018 | 5.158 | $ 23,000,000 | $ 17,000,000 | 35.29% | 4.9 | 34.8 | MVP 2015 |
| Bryce harper | OF | 2018 | 5.159 | $ 21,600,000 | $ 13,600,000 | 58.82% | 4.8 | 26.6 | MVP 2015 |
Sources: MLB Business Rumors & Baby Crib Baseball Contracts
In this top crust of former Super Two players, three players won MVP awards before their fourth year of officiating. The bottom four on the list have signed for a total of $ 840 million in free agency, with Kris Bryant currently serving as a free agent for the first time.
Josh Donaldson set a 2018 record for an arbitration-eligible player with his salary of $ 23 million, a mark that has since been surpassed by Nolan Arenado ($ 26 million in 2019) and Mookie Betts ($ 27 million. dollars in 2020). Donaldson’s career numbers at this point in his career surpass Turner’s, including an advantage of almost a full season of plate appearances.
- Josh Donaldson, until 2017: 3,598 PA, 174 HR, 179 2B, 526 R, 528 RBI, 34.8 WAR
- Trea Turner, until 2021: 3,029 PA, 103 HR, 152 2B, 485 R, 334 RBI, 203 SB, 24.4 WAR
The $ 23 million Donaldson earned in 2018 seems like a potentially unattainable upper limit for Turner, but maybe not by much.
Turner’s career performances compare well to those of the other four players on the roster, including almost the career WAR of his former teammate Anthony Rendon at this point in their careers. Turner’s top launch year (the season immediately before officiating) is expected to give him an edge over Rendon’s $ 18.8 million in 2019.
Turner and George Springer sync up quite well, both in career performances and in the most immediate season. Springer hit 39 home runs with 150 OPS + for the Astros in 2019. Turner hit 28 home runs with 146 OPS + in 2021 and added 32 steals to start. Springer was seventh in the MVP vote, Turner was fifth. Turner made his first All-Star team in 2021, while Springer was three-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger, and won a World Series MVP in 2017.
After a two-year, $ 24 million contract with Houston that covered his second and third seasons in officiating, Springer avoided arbitration in 2020 with a $ 21 million contract. Maybe his trophy case just keeps him a cut above Turner, but maybe that gap can be bridged by inflation over the next couple of years.
In the October projections, MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes valued Turner at $ 19.8 million in 2022, which would be a 52% increase from last year. I think Turner is right about asking Springer for money in refereeing, so I’m going to put it in for $ 20.5 million this season.